Looking at TDCJ's 2012 Statistical Report (p. 16 of the pdf), as of Aug. 31 of last year, one notices that about 14% (57,478) of the more than 400,000 probationers statewide were categorized as "absconders." Mercifully, they were not distributed evenly among felonies and misdemeanor: TDCJ categorized 10.3% of felony probationers as absconders (24,627) and 19.5% of the misdemeanor probation population (32,851).
A fleeting thought: The entire county jail population statewide as of last month was 67,096, with the maximum, theoretical statewide capacity at 94,936 (theoretical because jails usually must keep a few empty cells at any given time due to flux, transit, and other workaday purposes, usually around 4% of the total). So statewide, extra county jail capacity could at most hold 28,000 more people, though because the jails aren't staffed for it, the practical capacity is much lower than that. All that to say, if all of Texas' absconders surrendered tomorrow, quite literally the jails couldn't hold them.
In the comments, particularly for those with first-hand knowledge, please discuss: 1) What should realistically happen with absconders, given their vast number and high probation-officer caseloads? 2) What does happen on the ground in jurisdictions where you operate? 3) Are there specific probation requirements (e.g., high fees, in-office meetings, etc.) that promote absconding? 4) What categories of low-risk offenders could be trimmed from the rolls to focus more staffing resources on absconders and high-risk offenders? And 5) If your answer to "4" was "none," what additional funding source would you propose to boost supervision levels for absconders and high-risk offenders? Finally, 6) given that absconders haven't been arrested yet, is there a chance some of them themselves fall into the "low-risk" category and are unlikely to recidivate? (Which of course, gets us back to the first query.) Those are the questions that pop into Grits' mind, looking at this remarkable data.
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